Friday, September 29, 2006

I returned to playing last night, and things went okay. I actually tried my very first hands at the 2kNL games, despite my previous proclamations saying that wouldn't happen for a while. My abrupt about-face probably shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone who's been reading my blog for a while--what I plan on doing and what ends up happening are very often quite different.

Anyways, I've been running very blah for my last 15K hands or so, and I've been searching for reasons. Well there've been many, including some tilt. But I think the most telling is this stat:

I've had 14 consecutive hands where I've flopped a set against someone's flopped straight, or vice-versa (I flopped a straight against a set), and I've lost every single hand. Just to clarify, no that wasn't 14 consecutive hands dealt to me, but 14 straight hands in which it was straight vs set. To make matters worse, 9 of those 14 were where I had the straight. So 9 consecutive hands I've had a straight vs a set and I've lost every single one. And it isn't like the money's been going in bad--in every single one all the money went in with me ahead, mostly on the flop, a couple times on the turn.

The straight should be a 2:1 favorite, so I should expect to win about 6 of those straight hands, and nearly 2 of those where I had the set.

I don't really mean to whine about running bad, I just thought that was one of the more interesting runs I've had, up there with a run I had waaaay back in the day when I first started playing online poker and I had a run of 20 hands of KK where 10 times I was up against AA.

But yeah, I'm back to playing. When I have disasterous days like I had last Friday, it's always best for me to take some time off. It allows me to get my emotions more stabilized, and resets my perspective. Playing poker is a lot more fun when you feel like you're playing starting from even rather than playing starting in a huge hole, which is how it would feel if I'd played any of those subsequent few days.


Blogger RStutsky said...

I hear ya man, although I play on a lower level (multitable 2-4 NL), it really is frustrating when you are on a streak like this. Luckily the cream usually does rise to the top, so keep your head up.

7:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Set versus Straight thing is a statistical anomaly and you're right to feel whacked by the gods of probability.

The Kings versus Aces however is something different, and may not even be that unusual given the kind of games and players you play; with what other hands will players go all-in on you pre-flop or after a ragedy flop? Of the other 10 hands, I would guess you were up against QQ/JJ and AK mostly? So the 10 out of 20 Kings versus Aces may not be that much of an anomaly.

9:33 AM  
Blogger eric said...

Well the AA vs KK wasn't at the 1knl games, this was two and a half years ago when I was playing 2/4 limit online. And believe me, there was never an issue with people folding worse hands then...

8:16 PM  

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