Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Last week managed to be my best week since switching to NL, and, without actually looking it up, probably my second best week of the year. I didn't even have any huge days. I just didn't have any losing days, consistently doing "pretty good" every day. Now if only every week could be like that.

The WSOP has finally intruded upon my little bubble of isolation. I had a piece of my friend Stacy in the women's event, where she fought her way all the way to 17th place, thus requiring me to make the drive out to the madness at the Rio to cheer her on. She busted playing correctly, getting all her chips in as greater than a 3:1 favorite against the big stack, and in fact would have been the big stack herself had her hand held up.

Other friends of mine in town have been going on an on about how juicy the live 5/10 NL games have been, and so I fully expect to try my hand at them some time this week. I was hoping to have built my way up to 10/20 NL by the time the main event was going on, but that's looking less and less likely. Although from what I've heard, many of the 5/10 games are playing as big as a more typical 10/20 game, so perhaps I'm not missing out on much.

I had an interesting live hand this past week. Somewhat interesting in itself, but also interesting in that I think it shows just how far my NL game has come.

Three-handed live 2/5 NL. Effective stacks are $400. Suits don't matter. Button has been raising his button nearly every single time, although post-flop has been somewhat conservative.

Preflop: Button raises to $15. I call in the SB with T9o. BB folds.

Flop ($35): A 9 2, rainbow. I check. Button bets $20. I call.

Turn ($75): (A 9 2) 5. I check. Button thinks for a second and checks.

River ($75): (A 9 2 5) 3. I bet $25. Button thinks for about 30 seconds and then raises to $85.

What does he have? What should I do?

10 Comments:

Blogger fidobuster said...

i have two different lines on the hand.
#1) his turn check behind actually signalled weakness, but after you made a weakish looking river bet , he thought he could blow you off the hand w/ a sizable raise; however, getting close to 3-1 on your call (and believing his turn check was weakness)-- you called and beat his air.
#2) the only other thing he could have was a huge monster like AA or something he didn't need to protect on the turn. he is absolutely betting any A on the turn for protection.

i'll go w/ #1 since a monster is much more unlikely.

fidobuster.

6:34 AM  
Anonymous eric c said...

I'm going to go with 55.

6:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I play nl very poorly but i would put him on K 4 if he almost always raises it was a typical prefolop raise. then a typical continuation bet on the flop. the checked turn is weakness because he knows you called with something and right now he has air. he straightens out on the river. he only comes over the top if he can beat you. and his bet smells of a value bet. just enough that you should call.

you folded and he turned up K 4 or Q 4

8:20 AM  
Anonymous bil said...

Ick. So many possibilities. The thing that makes it tough is your comment about raising on the button with anything. Otherwise I'd guess a baby ace makes sense.

Speaking of baby ace, could he have stumbled into the straight with A4?

Or he has A5, and checked the turn figuring he was way ahead?

Hmm. You tell us. That's why we're here.

9:28 AM  
Anonymous Evan said...

My answer is fold, but I have very little live NL experience, where I imagine a river raise could mean much less than in NL 200 or 400 (NL600 I've seen some river aggression).

Anyway, obviously winning 25% of the time is the breakeven calling point. I don't think you've really included enough information to know whether that 25% is right here.

Raising is an option, but a little more complicated to analyze and I probably wouldn't unless I knew more about the opponent.

1:35 PM  
Anonymous Evan said...

Also, from the way you asked the question, the chances are that you did something other than fold.

2:11 PM  
Blogger eric said...

Also, from the way you asked the question, the chances are that you did something other than fold.

Yeah, if I'd just folded it'd be a boring hand, wouldn't it?

fidobuster pretty much nailed my thinking that hand. My opponent is rather conservative postflop, and this being 2/5 NL, he's just going to call with anything showdown-able, even two pair and perhaps even a set. The fact that he raised really pushes his probable hands out to the edges--he either has a straight/set or air.

He's betting any set on the turn. He's not thinking quite that long if he has a straight. So really, the only hands I can put him on are either 33 or a total miss. 33 is rather unlikely.

So he voiced his raise to 85 and started putting his chips out there and my call was in the pot before he'd finished.

"Good call," he lamented as he flipped up KTo, and MHIG.

12:23 AM  
Blogger estonb said...

I usually check-raise flop.

7:33 PM  
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