Tuesday, June 13, 2006

I had another good week playing NL and was feeling quite happy. That is, until I checked my portfolio, and realized I actually lost money overall this week. Quite a bit, in fact.



Anonymous Brian said...


While you are likely skilled at poker tells, you may have missed the tell that the economic markets gave - the inverted yield curve. It is one of the signs of a recession, so expect the markets to fall over the next few months. For more info, check out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_curve

That said, I'm not sure of a safe location to put your finances -- perhaps a high rate online savings account like with HSBC or Emigrant.

Hope this helps,

8:12 PM  
Blogger eric said...

Yeah, my knowledge of economic markets can be summarized thusly:

Up = good.

Down = bad.

From this, I've decided it's best to hope that the markets go up.

That said, my money market account currently offers a better return than those online savings accounts, so I'll probably stick to using that. And, of course, PartyPoker.

8:32 PM  
Anonymous Peter B said...


Read (or re-read) "Fooled By Randomness". If you want to make money by short-term trading the markets, then try to do so. If you don't, then either:

(a) don't worry too much about short-term fluctuations in prices (given your age, you can afford a time frame of 30 years or so) or

(b) if you can't help worrying too much about it, do not buy products where the price changes. Stick it into short-term deposits (which, given the current yield curve shape, is as good a place as any) and then you won't have to be worried about fluctuating prices.

Do ING offer a savings operation in the US?

My own dollar funds are in Schwab's short-term deposit account, currently knocking up about 4% a year, although this has been increasing every month for the past two years.

If you really want to set fire to money, buy a very expensive (new) place in Vegas and watched the property market tank as interest rates start hitting your burgeoning variable rate market. The US has never had so many people sensitive to alterations in interest rates, mainly because, in the past, people have borrowed at non-variable rates and then remortgaged if rates fell. If they have a variable-rate mortgage and rates go up, the property market will tank so badly that there will be a consumerist bloodbath.

The drastic price increases seen in the US property market is partly a function of rapid expansion in China. They have been hoarding up dollars, which has kept the US interest rate artificially low. When all this ends (as it will), the markets that went up the fastest will be the ones that suffer the most.


5:23 AM  
Blogger eric said...

afaik, ING offers their services to the US. My money market account is paying 4.78%, so I'm happy with that for now.

The drastic price increases seen in the US property market is partly a function of rapid expansion in China.

A butterfly flaps its wings...

1:29 AM  
Blogger . said...


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