Wednesday, May 24, 2006

NL has been going okay. My wins and losses have been quite small in relation to limit, even when I just played 5/10. I haven't been playing a whole lot, though. The sense of urgency that compelled me through 40 hour weeks back in '04 and '05 (and rocketed me from 4/8 to 100/200 in the same timeframe) seems to have deserted me.

One trend I've noticed, which I admit might be just some combination of selective memory and small sample size, is this: If someone goes all-in when I have the nuts, they invariably are completely bluffing. They didn't decide that I didn't have the nuts when they held the second nuts or whatever, they were just all out bluffing. However, if someone pushes all-in when I have the second nuts, they invariably have the nuts.

First, this leads me to the possible conclusion that a person pushing either has the nuts (or close enough for government work) or it's a total bluff. Assuming stacks are reasonably large, people just won't push with very strong but clearly non-nut hands, nor will they with relatively weak hands that aren't total misses (middle or top pair or something). I guess that makes sense. If you have no hand whatsoever the only way you can win is if the other guy folds and if you have a great hand, well hope the guy has something he can call with. But between the two, why risk blowing a person off a weak hand with which he might call a smaller bet, or make a huge bet that only hands that beat you can call?

But also, one thing I'm still confused about is how come it seems as though a person never pushes on a bluff when I have the second nuts? They've certainly shown a willingness to push on a bluff. And I'm not going to play the second nuts much differently from the nuts, so I doubt my play influences their decision. Yet the #2/pure bluff combo never seems to happen.

I guess I should just chalk that up to either selective memory or small sample size.

Anyways, I really feel like I'm approaching NL much like I used to approach limit when I did 2/4 and 3/6 limit online. I'm very wary about moving up. I always feel like if I won or have been winning for a while it's just luck and it'll all come crashing down soon.

I still haven't had the convincing string of wins that I would have at limit. At NL, the wins are supposed to be large and the losses rather small and sporadic. Well my wins are bigger than my losses, but still not overly large. And my losses seem to occur more frequently than some good NL players experience. Although many of those can usually be traced back to that one bad call, or one bad attempted bluff.

Certainly it should be expected that I'm not as good as guys who've been playing NL like I used to play limit. But it would be nice to just have that one day like I had with limit where all of a sudden I was winning and winning regularly for 18+ months. I guess while I'm at it, it would be nice to have a Ferrari, a beachfront mansion and a supermodel girlfriend, too.

I guess if how much attention I've been paying to my blog lately is indicitive of how focused I am on poker then it shouldn't be too surprising my results aren't improving as much as I'd like.


Blogger estonb said...

Gonna be in Vegas this summer. Shoot me an email or call me with some contact info if you want to meet up, maybe donk up a low limit game together.

5:39 AM  
Anonymous Will said...

The Parmer Game is starting a 1/3 NL HE game with min/max 40/200 this Friday. Next time you visit, eh?

7:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have really enjoyed your blog I found it recently and have just finally caught up. your insight seems to be right on most of the time. it is also refreshing to read a blog from someone who has the onions to go out to vegas and play poker professionally. where you play and the limits you play mean you are testing your skill with the best pool of contestants. not mucking around $50 stt. just wanted to say all of us out here without the onions to do what your doing enjoy reading about it and living our poker lives vicariously through your posts. it really is a great service to read an honest commentary about what it likes to be a pro playing for your rent money. without having to put up the bankroll or deal with the emotional roller coaster that is proffesional poker. thanks for allowing one man to live his dream weekly through your posts.

7:59 AM  
Blogger Duck said...

Very disappointed with the blog
You can at least complain what a piece of crap Lidge is.

Give your loyal readers more!

You did this as a job...shouldnt some of it kind of grind away at you? Even great jobs sometimes arent always fun.

1:20 PM  
Blogger eric said...

Lidge has been disappointing. I hope he regains at least some of his old form. The Astros bullpen is pretty weak as it is.

Lidge seems to have gone to the Rick Ankiel school of pitching. His K rate is still excellent, he's just walking way too many guys. Perhaps those blowups in last year's postseason really have affected him to the point he's too afraid to just go after batters like he used to. It would be a shame if he never really recovers his control.

I just hope he doesn't go all Donnie Moore on us.

4:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...
See you.

10:59 AM  

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