Tuesday, February 21, 2006

These new 6max games combined with the Party bonus offers are like crack. I played over 22 hours online last week and that's the most I've played online in a week in a long while. It also doesn't hurt that I ran very well. It's been a while since I've had a long sustained run of success so I'm feeling better. I think the fact that I essentially dropped in limits, from 30/60 to 20/40 and occasional 15/30, has helped. Also playing primarily short-handed I think more suits my "natural" style.

I'm not out of the woods yet. Examining my results for the last nearly three months shows that I've had poor overall results, at least relative to the standards I set for myself over the previous year and a half and 300-400K hands.

I don't usually post graphs and go into too much detail about results, but I will this once to illustrate what I'm talking about and the source of my concern.

This is how this current year has gone on Party, a little more than a month and a half:













From the start until the peak around the 16K hand mark was January. Not a bad month, overall. Nothing fantastic, but I'll take it--certainly better than the bad months. From that peak until the valley around the 27K hand mark was the first part of Febuary. Yes, that's over 300BBs. Not fun. From that trough to the end was this past week, which equates to nearly 10K hands and nearly a 4BB/100 WR, despite two separate 100BB+ losing streaks. Yay for me.

But overall, you see that my WR is sitting at 1.06BB/100, which is quite a bit below my "standard," less than half, in fact. Well, it's still only 36K hands or so, so what about December?













Er....26K hands, 0.19BB/100. So there's 62K hands at about a 0.70BB/100 WR. That's not a good trend. For most of my poker career, downswings were an anomaly. Maybe once a month I'd have a 130BB downswing or so, and once every few months I'd venture into the 200ish BB downswing territory. Now, they're practically commonplace.

I have enough statistical knowledge to know that even excellent players can run as I have for as long as I have, but I also know that I've moved up quite a bit in limits (most of this grinding my wheels the past 2 1/2 months has been at 30/60 and 50/100) and that I've also not been playing optimally--I've been trying perhaps too many tables, stubbornly staying in games that weren't great, and in general not focusing as much as I perhaps should as I continue to take the game more for granted. I for one am inclined to believe that my recent mediocre results are as much deserved as they are a result of one of those 60K hand statistical anomalies.

Now anyone who wants to do the math can deduce that I'm still paying my bills with room to spare (although it's worth noting that most of the downswings were at the bigger limits and the upswings at smaller limits), so I know many won't feel too much sympathy as they wake up at 7am to go to their cubicle job.

I'm not posting this looking for sympathy. I'm just saying this because I started this blog mostly to keep friends and family updated on how I'm doing, for better or for worse, and, well, that's how I'm doing. I've had three months of subpar results, and so I'm questioning where I go from here. I think I'll be hanging around the newly opened-up 15/30 and 20/40 6-max games for a while since my results have been better there and I like short-handed, and one can still make plenty of money at those levels.

I may very well have hit the peak of what I can accomplish given my current committment level to the game, and if that's true, so be it. I'd love to be one of those guys who makes 100K+ in a month, but I may just not have the mentality for it. So while I'm not about to give up poker as a profession--I still make much more at this than I can doing any "paid" job--I may very well have gotten knocked off the rocket ride up in limits, and am now operating a hand-cranked dumbwaiter. And if that's a stupid metaphor, then, well, deal with it. It's 5am.

70 Comments:

Anonymous Johnny FlopBoot said...

Just keep grinding it out... like you said, you're still covering your bills and making more than us cubicle monkeys. At least this cubicle monkey.


While I don't play as many hands as you do.. I've been on about a 4-5 month breakeven streak. It's killing me.. but I keep plugging along, as I don't think I'm really playing too badly.


If your bad streak consists of still winning money, then you're in for some good times in the next 50-100k hands when it turns around. Even 1-2BB/100 at 20/40 is a decent hourly clip when playing SH tables.

5:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i like reading your blog. funny how you are increasingly disparaging to, if not hostile towards, people with 9-5 jobs. your poker writings are really fun to read & interesting. as you try to justify your lifestyle and ponder your future, can you not take it out on those of us who choose the stability (and, yes, satisfaction) of pursuing our interests in the business world and play poker for fun? good luck.

8:21 AM  
Blogger eric said...

Anon,

Hi, yeah when I read johnny's remark I got the idea that maybe people were taking those comments differently than I intended, and reading yours of course confirms that indeed some people are.

I don't mean to disparage people in those jobs. For sure, I was one of them. It's not an indictment of the people in those jobs, rather of the jobs themselves. And I feel that many people in those jobs would probably agree with me. I know a lot of people who were like me and who do go into work and feel like those guys from Office Space.

I guess it's one of those things where if you're "one of us" (meaning an office worker) it's okay to complain, but as soon as you're out (like, quit to become a poker player) any comments like those I've made are no longer viewed as commiserative, rather they are viewed as disparaging.

Now, there are people who love their jobs, and that's great. But I believe that 90% of people really haven't found that perfect match, and really feel the way I did/still do.

But, if there's anyone I've insulted, I apologize, and I hope you now understand the intent behind those remarks I've made, and any I make in the future.

9:03 AM  
Anonymous Duck said...

i hate my job, i need a poker mentor...wanna teach me how to be a better player eric?

3:44 PM  
Blogger eric said...

I can teach you how to barely do better than break even for 60K hands at a time. How's that sound?

8:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Eric,

Don't worry about insulting anybody too much, this is your blog after all. By the way I agree, jobs do suck. Careers are okay but jobs (all of 'em, mine included) most definately suck.

I have just discovered your blog and read all the posts, so this question relates more to November, sorry I'm behind!

The subject was all-ins with AA pre-flop. I'm surprised that many people seem to think this is reasonable play. Personally I'll raise 3x big blind with any hand I intend to play in NL, more if the table is loose obviously, but I stick to a standard raise when first in.

I'm not sure why you would want to go all-in even against a reraise. You are better than 4-1 to the nearest holding, and if a reraise all-in is generally interpreted as, "He's got rockets for sure," is this a move to win the minimum and protect against bad beats?

Incidentally I have noticed at low limit NL an all-in raise generally does mean Aces, but had to learn this the hard way with KK and QQ. I had thought that this move represents donkey play, but perhaps my opponents are smarter than I'd credited them!

By the way, what would you say the minimum roll for one table of 6-handed 10/20 on Party (for a half decent player) is?

Thanks and good luck,

Matt.

6:23 AM  
Blogger eric said...

Matt,

I believe the reasons I listed for moving all-in were that

1) My opponent almost definitely had a premium hand

2) I knew that opponents at that level would be practically unable to get away from any premium hand.

A reraise out of the blinds is usually a monster. I see people simply call a raise with QQ in that situation. So I was trying to take advantage of the fact that my opponent almost definitely had KK (although, irrc, once a guy actually had AKs--even better). It was not to just get a win and move on, it was designed to maximize profit. And, also, in one case to avoid having to play one pair OOP. I was still hoping he'd call, but I didn't want to have to make any tough decisions on a KQx flop or whatever.

I agree with you that a quick all-in like that is rarely AA. People feel the need to slowplay. I've been against AA a few times and you can tell almost immediately I've found at these lower limits because people keep freakin min-reraising! Way to just turn over your hand, fellas...

But JJ or QQ or KK may very well just push. All the more reason to play it the way I did.

Min roll for 10/20 six max? $10K.

9:26 AM  
Blogger Beset7 said...

LHE is swingy.

Some of the best players I know who regularly play 100/200 up to 300/600 have had 50k+ break-even stretches.

I agree that the best balance is in the mid-limit games. But, don't for a second thing that running around 1b/100 at 30/60+ online is sub-par.

Tyler

2:30 PM  
Blogger Mike May said...

Personally, I think I would have just moved all-in.

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