Monday, January 09, 2006

I've been quite busy lately which is why I haven't been posting. I've had multiple friends in town visiting, and had a three-night trip out to LA.

LA was tons of fun. I may have to move out there. I'm not kidding. The games were great, even the 100/200, which played more like the Bellagio's 30/60. Now if only the cost of living and income taxes weren't both much, much higher...

I finished December having my second losing month of the year, and the second of the last four months. Unfortunately with poker, it's impossible to tell if that's a trend (ie, I'm starting to play "out of my league" a bit) or just random fluctuation.

Graphing my income over the last year and a half or so looks like this (I hope this makes sense, I'm doing it the ultra-lazy way):

June '04: +
July: +
August: +
Sept: +
Oct: 0
Nov: ++
Dec: +++
Jan '05: +++++
Febuary: ++++
March: 0
April: +++++++
May: +++++++++
June: +++++++++
July: +++++++++
August: ++++++++++++++
Sept: --
October: ++++++++++++++++
November: ++++++++++++
Dec: ----

Oct '04 was technically losing and March '05 was technically winning but each by trivial amounts.

By Sept '05 I was both playing significantly higher, and significantly more live, so both of those increase variance in dollar amounts. But we'll see. Oct '04, March '05 and Sept '05 each represented a 40-day or so break-even streak (over-flowing a bit into adjacent months, of course), and it looks like Dec '05-Jan '06 might be the same. I guess there's no reason to go through one every five or six months like clock-work. But if my average income isn't going to increase--I'm just going to have bigger winning months and worse losing months--then there's really no point in my playing higher. But we'll see. If there's one thing I've learned about poker, it's that there's way too much randomness to ever really conclusively tell anything.

Also, just for fun, I figured out which limits I'll be playing on Jan 1, 2007 if I have the same proportional increase in limits during 2006 as I had in 2005:

Live: 600/1200 limit, 10/20 NL
Online: 200/400 limit, 2000NL

Hmm...something tells me I'll slow down considerably in my ascent up the limit ladder, but those NL numbers may very well be correct. In fact, I hope they are. I'm giving serious consideration to trying to make NL my main game. And to help me out, Bellagio has just started spreading 5/10 NL, with a $400-1000 buy-in, which will be my next step. Woohoo, go Bellagio!


Blogger EstonB said...

That's great news as far as the Bellagio is concerned. I had two losing months in my first year of professional pokering. They were not fun. You'll break through soon...hopefully we'll see your ass in the Big Game next time we head out to Vegas.

3:57 AM  
Blogger fairnbalncd said...

"the 100/200 played like the Bellagio's 30/60".

Rack it.

Wish I had posted that.

7:53 AM  
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