Saturday, January 21, 2006

I haven't really had any hands of interest of late, so I thought I'd throw an old one out there. It has stuck in my head for the better part of six months now, so that must mean something.

Mirage 40/80, four-handed. Button is quite loose passive, but the other two players (UTG and SB) while fairly loose themselves are quite aggressive, the SB especially so.

UTG limps, button limps, SB completes and I check my option with K5o (an unraised pot preflop is quite a rarity).

Flop (4 players, 4 SB): K 8 6. Checks around.

Turn (4 players, 2 BB): (K 8 6) A. SB checks, I check, UTG bets. Button and SB both fold.

What does UTG have? What's my play?

14 Comments:

Anonymous Brian said...

Your opponent has either KT or K9. Maybe K7 suited.

Your play is to raise immediately.

10:09 PM  
Anonymous Matt said...

I think UTG's range is large enough here that you should raise:

You'll have the best hand a lot of the time, up against things like Q8, J8, pocket pairs, or drwas like JT.

Considering that you describe the player as passive, it will probably be easy to fold to a three-bet. Since you have position, you could also call and reevaluate on the river.

A raise will also potentially knock out some kings that can beat you, but that's less likely.

1:58 PM  
Anonymous Matt said...

EDIT: I meant "draws like T9."

1:59 PM  
Blogger Stacy said...

I would assume the player has some kind of small pocket pair, like 33, 44 or 55, or a suited connector, like T9 or 98. In my limited experience, aggressive players usually don't limp Ax UTG in a 4 handed game, nor do they check top pair on the flop ever. So I think you probably have this player beat.

However, if you do have him beat, it's in your best interest to entice him to continue putting money in the pot. If playing live I had a solid enough read to confidently put a player on a range I beat, I would probably call the turn bet, and check raise the river. Checkraise becuase if he's on a straight bluff, an aggressive player will most likely keep betting the river, but will never call, if he has a pair he might pay you off, and if he doesn't have a pair, you won't have to show your hand.

4:10 PM  
Blogger eric said...

Matt, I described UTG as aggressive. It was the button who was passive.

Against the button I think it's an easy fold. The pot is only 2BBs, and he very well could have limped with an A. However, UTG is aggressive and so it should be obvious he doesn't have an A--he would raise an A preflop.

He doesn't have a K. He would bet a K on the flop. What about AA, KK, 88 or 66? He would raise all preflop, although perhaps not AA in an effort to build a pot, but that's very unlikely especially since he didn't bet the flop either. Button is very passive, UTG knows this, so if UTG had any piece of that flop he's betting, else it gets checked around.

Therefore, I almost definitely have the best hand and not only that, but UTG is drawing to 2-5 outs, which make him at best about an 8-1 dog.

So if I raise now I almost definitely take it down, except in those rare instances that he actually played a hand that beats me in a very, very strange way. So I win 3BBs by raising now.

There's also the point that as an aggressive and experienced player, he could interpret my turn raise as a re-steal and pop me once again which I really do not want to have to deal with.

And, since he's aggressive, he'll almost definitely bet the river regardless. 1 in 9 times that river helps him, but 8/9s of the time it doesn't, so by check-calling both the turn and river I end up winning 8/9s of 4 BBs which is about 3.6BBs, so it's more profitable by 0.6BBs to check-call, check-call.

And if he doesn't bet the river, I still win the same amount I'd have won anyways, although I would have given him a free card. So knock that expectation in half, and say it's a 0.3BB difference.

In a game where one's expectation is 1-1.5BBs an hour (assuming very good to excellent play), that's a pretty big difference, and one that people should be jumping on.

As it played out, I called the turn bet and check-called the blank river and was shown JT. He saw my K5o on an AKxxx board, rolled his eyes and said in a slightly exasperated tone, "you called with that?"

Yup, I'm just another fish. What can I say?

8:47 PM  
Blogger eric said...

PS - So Stacy pretty much nailed it I think, although it's my opinion that check-raising the river would be pretty bad. Perhaps if I had a super-crazy image, but that wasn't my image at that table. Yet.

Otherwise, even though it's almost assured that I have him beat, he's not calling with any hand I do beat, but is calling (and perhaps 3betting) with hands that do have me beat--like let's say that river did give him two pair or trips or hit him right in the gut. So CRing would net me nothing most of the time, but cost me a lot some of the time. -EV.

8:50 PM  
Blogger EstonB said...

I think this is a pretty clear calldown hand. He doesn't have a good ace, or he would have raised preflop. He doesn't have a K that beats you, ditto. He could have tons of shit, since he's a LAG, including strange draws, outright bluffs, worse pairs. Get him to fire away, and don't worry about missing value because he's a LAG.
I would have given some thought to betting flop too (I'm assuming it was a whiffed CR). But after checking flop, as far as the turn and river, call/call, esp. with your read. Passive is the new aggressive!

2:48 AM  
Blogger eric said...

Eston,

bingo, the flop check was a whiffed CR. That's how sure of his aggression I was--I figure he's betting a very large percentage of the time there. The fact that he checked told me he whiffed completely, so the only way for him to put more money in the pot is to let him keep betting it.

6:09 AM  
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