Monday, September 05, 2005

Just a quick update. I've had a couple friends in town and so have been pretty busy.

August ended spectacularly. I had my best week ever and so that contributed to my best month ever, by a large margin, at that.

September has not been kind to me yet. I've been alternatively winning big live and losing big online or vice-versa, and have ended the first week down a little bit for only my second losing week since March (but my second in the last three weeks--sandwiching the best week ever).

I think this past week is more a function of not playing enough. I only played five hours online instead of my standard 15+ and so with the smaller sample size comes the increased probabilty of finishing down. I finished up in my live play.

I'm not too distraught about the losing week. That's just part of the profession. It's always nicer to win, though.

I had some hands I wanted to post but I'm having trouble remembering them all. If I remember more I'll post, but here's one for now (then I have to get to bed):

Crazy 30/60 game at the Bellagio. I'm three off the button with black 99. A couple limpers, the guy to my right raises and I reraise. CO calls three cold, SB and BB both call, everyone else calls. Seven see a flop of:

Tc 6d 6c

I'm sixth to act, 21SBs. Checked to the first raiser who bets. Since he didn't four-bet preflop, I have a hard time putting him on a big pair, although JJ is a possibility. Otherwise, it's probably a club draw (perhaps AK or AQ) or even a pocket pair like 88 or 77. I didn' t have the greatest read on him, but I was pretty sure that there was a good chance my hand was still good, at least compared to him.

No, I was worried about the fact that it was a big pot and there were still five other players in. A flop raise wasn't driving anyone out, but it was too big a pot to just let go immediately, so I called planning on raising any non-threatening turn (ie, anything below a 6). Only one person drops, making me very worried, and six see the turn:

Turn (13.5 BBs): (Tc 6d 6c) 9d.

Well, I hit my money card.

Checked to the bettor again, and he bets. I call. CO folds and now the SB check-raises. The BB calls two cold, everyone else drops even the bettor, and now I finally wake up and three-bet. The SB agonizes a little while before finally calling (in general he has a very keen sense for when he's beat--but he still won't fold), and the BB also calls.

My read: SB has a 6, and BB is an atrocious hand-reader and still chasing a flush. I mean, c'mon, the call/three-bet on the turn in a huge multi-way pot is about as a clear and strong a signal as just turning your monster over for everyone to see.

Despite what I think their most likely hands are, either one could easily have a T--people who can't let go of TPTK no matter what are relatively common. Unfortunately, I have no real read on the BB yet, this being the second round I'd ever played with him, so I have to assign to him a small amount of intelligence and that means flush draw.

SB now checks in the dark. The river:

(Tc 6d 6c 9d) Ts

23.5 BBs in the pot. BB checks, it's on me.

Who bets here?

11 Comments:

Blogger Madroxxx said...

I like checking, but then I'm no where near your caliber.

10:01 AM  
Blogger d said...

Theoretically, I would bet/call here everytime. In reality, I check here almost everytime without a better read on BB. :P

6:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That is a tough one. All depends on your correctness in your read. I definitely agree with your read on the flush draw. You won't get anymore bets out of him, so I'd forget about him. I think the SB either has 6X, AT, or KT since you didn't get the 4bet back on the turn (6T is not an option).

I personally bet.

A semi-intelligent AT/KT player who sees a gigantic card like that spike on the river has to at least consider that the other T is still in the deck and has the best hand with T's full. He figures his opponent will surely know the T is out, so he bets. Your opponent did not bet so I really still figure he's on the 6X.

11:08 PM  
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

If you bet here, the player after you will only call, even if he has a T. He wants the SB to just call, and doesn't want to force him out with a raise. If you check he will bet, hoping the SB calls and you both split if you both have a T.

Either way it's one big bet to you, so I'd bet.

5:05 AM  
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

Unless someone has TT or 66, then you're boned.

5:07 AM  
Anonymous bil said...

First of all, it seems that your hand is extremely well defined. After your play pre-flop and on the turn, what could you have besides TT or 99? 66 wouldn't three bet the turn; big pair either calls or folds to the check-raise.

How does that help you on the end? Good question. Hmm. Not sure.

Your initial read makes the most sense. SB has A6, waited till the turn to raise. BB has flush draw; didn't get there. A bet on the end will get a crying call from SB and a fold from BB, right?

Say this is the case 67% of the time, you get .67 BB extra. Versus the other 33% where someone has a T (or TT or 66) and you pay it off: -.67 BB.

You need better than 67% confidence in the 6x/flush draw scenario to bet out. I feel like that scenario is around 80%--I just can't believe BB would call the check-raise and your three bet with just a T. But people do stupid things and win all the time.

What would you do if you bet, SB raised and BB three bet?

9:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think if you bet the only person that can call you is someone who has you beat. I think you check it down there and hope some moron didnt have a naked 10....

so what happened?

10:54 AM  
Blogger eric said...

What got to me was the check in the dark. Usually that's not a good play, but it worked here.

If BB had a T, most of the time he would bet the river. So I'm 80-90% sure he doesn't have a T.

I doubt SB has a T because I can't see him CRing the field on just a T with so much action preflop--ie someone representing a big pair. I've played against him many times and he's more cautious--he would have been betting out. So he almost certainly has a 6, or maybe hit an unfortunate (for him) gutshot.

But he checked in the dark so I was unable to get the clincher, which would be a check on the T. So I'm 80-90% sure he doesn't have a T, either.

So add it up and I'm I dunno 65-80% sure I'm good. Okay, maybe a little more.

BUT.

What pays me off? A flush draw is folding. 78 is folding. Hell, A6 might even fold. I have been screaming what my hand is. Okay A6 would probably make a crying call, but basically I'm getting one call at most if I bet, and I'm risking getting CRed in two places--remember BB I had never played against before.

So although I figured I'm almost definitely good, I also figured I couldn't get much action at all unless I was beat and so I checked it down. Neither player showed, so I showed my 99 and took the pot. SB said he had a 6, BB was noncommital, so I guess really he could have had anything from a 6 to 78 to a flush draw.

I hate being results oriented, but looking back I think a bet was in order. If I had thought about it a little more I would have realized that BB almost never checks a T there--guys who'll CR a T in that situation are common enough online, but very, very rare at the Bellagio 30 game. Also, from my experiences playing against SB before, he almost definitely didn't have a T, and would pay off with a 6 just about 100% of the time. So although it's probably close, I probably should have bet. Who knows, maybe the SB's 78 would also have paid off--it was a huuuge pot.

8:04 PM  
Blogger eric said...

As for what Duggle said about him just calling with a T, that's an assumption I can't make. I would say over 70% of the time, in a pot that looks highly likely that it will be split, people are raising even with others left to act. It's annoying but true.

I had one hand where I turned top pair and a straight draw. I bet out from the SB and got called in five places. I rivered the straight (four consecutive to the straight on the board) and bet out again. BB raised, everyone else folded. I called and chopped.

So this guy in the BB sees the somewhat tight SB betting out into five other players with four to the straight on the board on a loose table with people paying off anything and everything and decides to raise? To what purpose? What else could I have besides the J for the straight as well? Yet he managed to scare everyone else out, even the guy who had hit a set and almost definitely would have called one bet.

Anecdotal as it is, that's just how players play the game. I see it all the time--in an pretty obvious chopping situation, the choppers are raising everyone else out.

To answer Bil's question, if I bet and get CRed and check-reraised that I am insta-mucking, barring a tremendous read.

8:13 PM  
Blogger mikek628 said...

Eric,

If I am in the situation you describe, I make a bet there 99.99% of the time.

If my opponent makes quads there, "Well done, I'm paying you off".

In my experience, this hand over the long run is going to pay me a hell of lot more times than it isn't. It's kinda like taking insurance in Black Jack here. You know what, if he's got it, he's it, but I know the odds are he doesn't, I don't care if he is check raising me. I don't care if I don't have a read on the BB, I still make the bet here.

You are wrong to think that only a very strong hand calls here or even makes a raise or hell even a check raise. You described the table as a "crazy 30/60 game". When the chemistry is just right at one of these games, anything can happen and most often will. No...I make that bet and I expect to be called by at least one of them with anything from A10 to
7c8c. Hell, I can see someone in that hand with 10d8d.

In fact, I could see the senario that I bet the 99 get check raised by someone holding 10d8d and re raised by A10. I would slow down if those raises came at me, but I'm not laying it down.

I've played in some crazy high limit games in which the table was so loose, I saw a guy take down a pot with 7 high. A scare card K came on the river and he re-raised a check-raiser. The original bettor layed down, the first check raiser laid down. The guy who made the brilliant move threw his hand up for the table to see. When that happened, the table got REALLY LOOSE......my kinda game!

9:14 PM  
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2:42 PM  

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